← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 68% | 62% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.04 | value: +18% |
| Tours win | 13% | 15% | 7.56 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Tours |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1773.00 | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1592.94 | 1453.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.72 | -18.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 62.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.36 |
| state index | 1.05 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |