← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Tue, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 39% | 41% | 2.47 | fair |
| Metz win | 32% | 27% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.39 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ES Troyes AC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.16 | 1557.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -53.29 | 20.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 46.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.97 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |