← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Tue, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niort win | 42% | 32% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Creteil win | 28% | 42% | 3.54 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Creteil | Niort |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1456.98 | 1510.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 60.48 | 8.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| league points | 45.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.60 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |