← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Tue, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 48% | 35% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 37% | 3.45 | value: +28% |
| Bastia win | 23% | 28% | 4.15 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3231.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1421.36 | 1446.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.15 | -7.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 22.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |