← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 65% | 55% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 27% | 4.62 | value: +24% |
| Tours win | 14% | 18% | 6.82 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Tours |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 670.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1562.17 | 1450.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.83 | -34.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 68.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |