← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 42% | 50% | 2.33 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| Nimes win | 29% | 22% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 663.00 | 1394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1480.02 | 1451.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.25 | -14.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 44.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.09 |
| state index | -1.00 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |