← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arles win | 46% | 33% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 38% | 3.26 | value: +22% |
| Bastia win | 25% | 29% | 3.98 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3220.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1429.15 | 1451.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.30 | 3.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 21.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |