← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 52% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.62 | value: +10% |
| Dijon win | 21% | 22% | 4.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 199.00 | 656.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1551.17 | 1486.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.96 | -40.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.28 | -1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |