← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Mon, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 44% | 42% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.42 | value: +11% |
| Metz win | 27% | 26% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 652.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1486.70 | 1542.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.02 | 9.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.97 |
| state index | -0.82 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |