← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 42% | 43% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
| Istres win | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Istres | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1745.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1410.50 | 1551.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.84 | 9.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 35.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |