← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 37% | 36% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 35% | 41% | 2.81 | value: +14% |
| Arles win | 28% | 23% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Brestois 29 | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 316.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1474.27 | 1466.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.55 | -4.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 40.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |