← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 48% | 49% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
| Arles win | 22% | 19% | 4.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 635.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1502.25 | 1445.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.62 | -42.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| league points | 42.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.62 | -1.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |