← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, Mar 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateauroux win | 36% | 40% | 2.72 | value: +8% |
| Nimes win | 34% | 32% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chateauroux | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 178.00 | 1366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1438.22 | 1466.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.66 | 9.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |