← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 67% | 65% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.28 | fair |
| Chateauroux win | 10% | 13% | 9.43 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Chateauroux |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1724.00 | 171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1546.98 | 1433.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.29 | 4.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 42.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.14 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |