← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arles win | 40% | 46% | 2.46 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.98 | fair |
| Istres win | 28% | 21% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arles | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1448.67 | 1401.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.24 | 2.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| league points | 35.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.11 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |