← EFL League Two 2006-07 · Mon, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: N Miller
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 39% | 32% | 2.37 | fair |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 34% | 42% | 2.62 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.