← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 40% | 48% | 2.41 | value: +15% |
| AJ Auxerre win | 30% | 24% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1058.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1467.03 | 1495.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.47 | 4.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 55.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.32 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |