← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 65% | 48% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 29% | 4.91 | value: +45% |
| Ajaccio GFCO win | 15% | 23% | 6.61 | value: +50% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio GFCO | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1051.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1372.81 | 1547.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.29 | 2.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| league points | 28.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.78 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.47 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |