← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sedan win | 44% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +4% |
| Niort win | 29% | 23% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.66 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sedan | Niort |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1423.05 | 1399.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.60 | -18.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |