← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 65% | 52% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.21 | value: +24% |
| Racing Club de Lens win | 12% | 19% | 8.36 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1044.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1534.04 | 1450.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.74 | -11.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 61.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |