← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Mon, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 65% | 51% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 30% | 4.28 | value: +30% |
| Clermont win | 12% | 18% | 7.98 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 370.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1555.58 | 1411.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.21 | -15.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| league points | 62.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |