← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco FC win | 57% | 34% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 37% | 3.78 | value: +38% |
| Caen win | 17% | 30% | 5.65 | value: +68% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Monaco FC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1403.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1607.58 | 1550.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.23 | -11.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 67.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.65 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |