← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niort win | 48% | 43% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 22% | 28% | 4.40 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Niort | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1408.87 | 1490.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.47 | -18.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 35.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.29 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |