← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 42% | 33% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.95 | fair |
| Niort win | 25% | 33% | 3.88 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Niort | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 360.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1416.87 | 1547.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.48 | -16.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 35.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.79 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |