← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC win | 41% | 43% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.15 | value: +5% |
| Arles win | 28% | 24% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Mans FC | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1395.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1377.57 | 1441.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.63 | 29.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.21 |
| state index | -1.24 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |