← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 48% | 51% | 2.04 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Chateauroux win | 23% | 22% | 4.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Chateauroux |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 146.00 | 1030.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1494.36 | 1411.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.23 | -10.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 43.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |