← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 60% | 54% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.82 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 15% | 19% | 6.70 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 354.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1550.91 | 1491.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.71 | -14.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 58.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.31 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |