← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateauroux win | 42% | 42% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.96 | fair |
| Niort win | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chateauroux | Niort |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1023.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1402.67 | 1425.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.04 | 8.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.09 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |