← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tours win | 45% | 36% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +6% |
| Ajaccio GFCO win | 26% | 32% | 3.79 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio GFCO | Tours |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1366.20 | 1457.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.37 | 14.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| league points | 22.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.28 |
| state index | -1.54 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |