← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Monaco FC win | 38% | 32% | 2.57 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 31% | 42% | 3.12 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | AS Monaco FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 133.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1505.01 | 1588.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.58 | -6.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 42.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.94 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |