← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 48% | 44% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.43 | value: +4% |
| Dijon win | 24% | 26% | 4.09 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1016.00 | 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1473.28 | 1506.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.71 | 11.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 48.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |