← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 37% | 32% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 35% | 2.98 | value: +4% |
| Arles win | 30% | 34% | 3.24 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arles | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1009.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1415.86 | 1473.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.21 | -2.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |