← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 38% | 45% | 2.58 | value: +15% |
| AS Monaco FC win | 31% | 25% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | AS Monaco FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 333.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1548.38 | 1594.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.48 | 19.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| league points | 54.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |