← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 47% | 50% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.34 | fair |
| Dijon win | 24% | 26% | 4.12 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 118.00 | 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1508.70 | 1508.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.88 | -0.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 40.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.59 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |