← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Sun, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 59% | 62% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.58 | fair |
| Istres win | 14% | 11% | 6.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1362.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1556.34 | 1417.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.07 | -15.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |