← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 45% | 43% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.24 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 25% | 31% | 3.88 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 172.00 | 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1462.35 | 1518.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.72 | 15.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 37.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |