← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tours win | 50% | 46% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
| Laval win | 21% | 25% | 4.58 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tours | Laval |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 226.00 | 988.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1446.01 | 1414.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.15 | 11.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 34.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.07 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |