← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arles win | 41% | 36% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.05 | fair |
| Sedan win | 27% | 30% | 3.58 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arles | Sedan |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1412.04 | 1416.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.54 | -4.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 31.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.82 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |