← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 66% | 62% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.25 | value: +10% |
| Ajaccio GFCO win | 11% | 12% | 9.00 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Ajaccio GFCO |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 312.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1559.62 | 1389.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.55 | -48.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| league points | 51.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.74 |
| state index | 0.59 | -1.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |