← Ligue 2 2012-13 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 48% | 51% | 2.04 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.17 | fair |
| Arles win | 21% | 18% | 4.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 250.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.97 | 1392.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.11 | -16.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |