← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
| Tours win | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Tours |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 17.00 | 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1398.71 | 1463.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.16 | 26.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 41.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.49 |
| state index | -1.02 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |