← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tours win | 36% | 40% | 2.63 | value: +5% |
| Le Mans FC win | 33% | 29% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tours | Le Mans FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 345.00 | 1045.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1454.10 | 1481.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.57 | 8.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 52.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |