← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arles win | 43% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Metz win | 26% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arles | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1443.31 | 1405.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.07 | -23.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 44.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.55 | -1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |