← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 52% | 45% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
| Racing Club de Lens win | 21% | 26% | 5.00 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ES Troyes AC | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1473.14 | 1458.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.39 | -16.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 55.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |