← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 49% | 46% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
| Arles win | 23% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1451.90 | 1458.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.18 | 10.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |