← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 66% | 55% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.50 | value: +32% |
| Amiens win | 12% | 16% | 9.00 | value: +46% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 673.00 | 2864.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1400.52 | 1338.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.73 | -21.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 38.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.74 |
| state index | -1.31 | -1.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |