← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateauroux win | 39% | 43% | 2.38 | value: +3% |
| Tours win | 32% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chateauroux | Tours |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 673.00 | 338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1423.36 | 1437.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.73 | -18.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 48.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.40 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |