← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 45% | 37% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +9% |
| Le Mans FC win | 26% | 29% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Le Mans FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 670.00 | 1035.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1441.87 | 1460.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.61 | -4.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 45.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |