← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Tue, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arles win | 37% | 43% | 2.50 | value: +9% |
| ES Troyes AC win | 31% | 24% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arles | ES Troyes AC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1459.49 | 1471.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.83 | 9.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.59 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |