← Ligue 2 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istres win | 39% | 35% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Amiens win | 30% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Istres |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2850.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1355.37 | 1469.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.23 | 0.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 25.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.38 |
| state index | -1.38 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |